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Philip E. Tetlock is a Canadian-American political psychologist and the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, renowned for his groundbreaking research on forecasting, judgment, and decision-making under uncertainty. Tetlock is best known for designing and leading the Good Judgment Project (GJP), a major research initiative sponsored by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) that fundamentally challenged conventional wisdom about expert prediction. Through rigorous research and prediction tournaments, Tetlock identified a cohort of exceptional forecasters termed "superforecasters" who demonstrated remarkable accuracy in predicting global political and economic events. His research revealed that superforecasters were approximately 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, highlighting the potential of systematic methodology, probabilistic thinking, and cognitive humility over traditional expertise and information access. In 2015, Tetlock co-authored the bestselling book "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" with Dan Gardner, which distilled the key findings and practical insights from the Good Judgment Project into an accessible guide for improving collective decision-making. His other seminal work, "Expert Political Judgment," demonstrated how cognitive biases and overconfidence plague expert forecasting and established the foundations for the superforecasting methodology that follows.


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